Extreme greed in the capital markets

January 26th, 2026

The U.S. stock market recently reached all time highs. While there’s no telling how long this trend could continue, it seems to me that valuations are once again detached from reality.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Hiring is down.

US non-farm payrolls

Participation in the U.S. stock market is at all time high.

Real estate is stalling.

With ~2.7% inflation, real estate has lost ~2.7%.

With some markets being worse than others.

I think re-valuations are coming, probably within a year, maybe within 2. I’d be surprised if it takes longer, but timing these things is so extremely difficult, if not impossible.

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