I just came across this news that Goldman Sachs upgraded the shares of Research In Motion (the company behind Blackberry) with the justification that “they have a 30% chance that the phone will be a success”.

Ok first of all Goldman Sachs has a reputation for creating the biggest financial bubbles in history. Second, has everybody forgot the Facebook IPO already? Goldman Sachs entered the Facebook deal, created a vibe effectively propping up the market price, then shortly after the IPO they cashed out. From $38 per share to $25.

RIM is simply too late. Even if it launches a great product, it will remain a niche. I’m still debating whether Microsoft has joined the mobile market too late, and they launched Windows Phone two years ago! 30% chance? They might be lucky to get a 5% chance if they launch it at a compelling price.

So here’s my suggestion as a technology enthusiast: if you want to ride the wave of enthusiasm keep the shares for a week, then sell immediately.

The RIMM price is at $11.73 at the moment of my writing. I will update this post in a few months to see if I was right or wrong.

Edit: completely forgot about this post until today, I was wrong about my prediction because stocks went up in the months that followed this post, however today (August 7th 2013) they are trading at $9.19. I still hold my belief that BlackBerry is not going to make it (in the long run).

Edit 2: November 4th 2013: Blackberry stocks are now trading at $6.44.
Edit 3: May 3rd 2025: Blackberry stocks are now trading at $3.49.